Wednesday, November 16, 2016

How will the Trump Presidency affect Chester county real estate?

The media is abuzz with articles on how the Trump Presidency could affect the housing market. The A article talks about different home buyer sentiments in the blue vs red states especially in the short term.  A Forbes article speculates on fewer banking/building regulations, and tax reform. A Marketwatch article assumes increased investments in infrastructure, leading to possible job growth.  

Overall, a lot of questions are raised, and the jury is still out on the answers.  Will the rural and inner city middle class be affected the same as the million dollar coastal listings?  Will Dodd Frank, which imposed wide regulation on the mortgage industry, be cut back? Will Fannie and Freddie survive? Will the job growth escalate?  Will the Fed increase interest rates? Will tax reform leave more money for home purchase? 

To me, all real estate is local.  Below is a map of all Chester county Home Sales.  The trend as we can see, is steady improvement since the recession years.  I believe this trend is due to a wave of population growth in northern Chester county areas.  This growth is due to more jobs, good and better schools, incoming immigrant population and investment in infrastructure.  The unemployment rate in Chester county is 3.9% - compared to State of PA which is 5.4% according to Labor Force Statistics so we are doing relatively better than the rest of the state.

Chester County Home Sales 

I have my own sets of questions that affect the local real estate market.  Will the popularity of the local schools continue to attract buyers?  Will the recent rise of new construction by top builders like Toll, Lennar, Pulte, Ryan, NVR, Southdown...continue? Will the millennials want to buy suburban homes or will they prefer condo living in Philadelphia? Will the expansion of the train station in Coatesville, give the city a much needed boost?  Is the coming of Whole Foods, popularity of Wegmans, expansion of the King of Prussia Mall ...a sign of more jobs and affluence? With the widening of Rt 202, and the new turnpike access from Rt 29, will local traffic congestion be relieved? Will Chester county employers like Vanguard, Bentley, Shire...continue to attract the immigrant population? Is the increasing diversity in the area a cause for interracial relations concern?  Will the Pharmaceutical industry growth in neighboring Montgomery county continue?

The answer to these lies in the new President's immigration policy, tax reform, infrastructure budgets and spending, deregulation of mortgage industry, transfer of power to states and local officials, international policies and war on terrorism, and the trickle down effect of these policies.

I am cautiously optimistic.  Growth and prosperity will benefit all, regardless of their politics.  Even with the recent significant spike in Interest rates to 4%, (the highest jump in 3 years) this is still a historically low rate, which should encourage home ownership.  I predict slowing down of the rental market, and a continued steady growth in Home Sales in the near future.  No crystal ball for long term yet.

Take a few minutes to share your views.

Thank You.

Bela Vora, REALTOR®,
Coldwell Banker Preferred - Exton Real Estate.
Office: 610 363 6006; Cell: (484) 947 3127
Website - Search Homes
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